October 1, 2024
The Fourth Turning is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End
Neil Howe
Neil Howe's The Fourth Turning is Here offers a timely analysis of generational cycles as we approach a crucial presidential election. The book argues that we're in a crisis period, or "Fourth Turning," which began around 2008 and may climax in the late 2020s or early 2030s. Howe predicts significant societal shifts, including economic revival, increased civic engagement, and technological advancements. While we approach macro predictions cautiously as value investors, Howe's framework provides valuable context for considering long-term societal trends that could impact markets and industries. As we navigate this period of uncertainty, the key takeaway for investors is the importance of adaptability and identifying companies with strong fundamentals that can thrive in an evolving landscape.